LE SHADI - Road to Milan

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上週五及本周一美股大跌，尤其是費半重挫逾6%及3%，台積電ADR兩天跌掉6、7%，影響到今天台股盤勢，護國神山2330台積電首當其衝，今天收在401.5元，台股加權指數大盤596.25點，收到13,106.03點，成交金額2,177.6億元，收盤創2年新低。
一、mobile01.com論壇理財
資料來源：mobile01.com
而在mobile01.com論壇理財版看到這一篇「台積電股票當投資?
1、一個股票價格如果是1,000元，每年股息是10元，那我建議你存錢。10/1,000=1%
2、一個股票價格如果是100元，每年股息是10元，那我建議你投資。
10/100=10%
台灣最有名的股票，就是2330台積電，每年股息平均10元。
台積電EPS27，還是每年只發10元，3個月發1次2.75元，以之前每股價值500–600元，以500元投入一年，1年只收到10元，10/12月。等於每個只收到1元，年利率大概只有1.5%，比定存不如。
這種公司的股票能拿來當投資？我去路邊撿資源回收都比這獲利高。
有配過息?沒有。
發紀念品?沒有。
配息有嗎?有。比定存還不如，笑死人。
以上是網友的觀點，經過小茹檢視過，發現網友年化報酬率計算公式與觀念錯誤。
★年化報酬率(510–500)÷500=2%而非1.5%。
★定存101.5萬(勝)VS存2330台積電683,060
網友以100萬計算：
https://documenter.getpostman.com/view/24130000/2s8YKAn4HK
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https://www.challengermode.com/tournaments/a552b903-9ae5-42fd-b3d4-08dab90cb0ee?UTM_Campaign=SharedTournament
https://dotnetfiddle.net/Gr6nOj
定存1.5%=101.5萬(一年)
成本台積電600元，買進1,666股
股價1,666*400=66.64萬
股息16,660元
666,400+16,660=683,060元(一年)
定存101.5萬(勝)VS存2330台積電683,060
二、觀念的錯誤
今天是因為2330台積電大跌來比，就說定存的好，其實是觀念的錯誤，但是也發現了所謂的「存股」絕非無腦存股，要考慮風險與資金控管兩件更重要的事。
(一年後誰曉得2330台積電股票會不會重回600元，甚至上漲到1,000元。)
目前投資股票利得分為：(1)價差與(2)股息兩大部份。
（１）價差＝600－400＝－200元（未實現損益）－33.33%
（２）股息＝16,660÷600,000=殖利率2.78%就已經勝過定存1.5%。
如果投資人對半導體產業很熟悉，考慮到風險認為現在是低點，有資金就可以慢慢逢低買進，你的成本就不會是600元。
三、心得
小茹的心得有3點：
1、任何人說無腦投資XXX，而你因為跟單而賠錢，最大的錯仍然是你，因為你是損失最大的人。
2、空頭市場中，短線投資人很焦慮，股價漲跌是很正常一件事，如果你真的很焦慮或無法面對虧損，先選擇退場不失一個好方法。
3、2330台積電是台灣第一大權值股，是黃金而非垃圾，你不懂得它的價值， 錯過它也只是剛好，長期投資好公司如果沒有買在便宜價或合理價，確實要花更多時間成本去等待。

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